The data I've compiled for October 2025 tells one of the most compelling stories in Bass Coast property market history. If you own property in Inverloch, Cape Paterson, Venus Bay, Wonthaggi, or Tarwin Lower, this comprehensive analysis will help you understand exactly where your asset stands and what the future might hold.

Bass Coast Quick Comparison: October 2024 - September 2025

The Big Picture: Understanding Our Regional Market Shift

Before we dive into each suburb's unique story, let's acknowledge what every homeowner in our region has experienced: property values have corrected significantly since the extraordinary 2021-22 peak. Across all five suburbs I track, we've seen declines ranging from 9% to 27% from those historic highs. But here's what the headlines won't tell you – even after this correction, properties across the Bass Coast are worth substantially more than they were just five years ago, and we're seeing healthy transaction volumes that indicate a functioning, liquid market.



The year ending September 2025 saw 303 house sales across these five key suburbs, demonstrating that buyers are actively engaged and vendors are successfully transacting. That's crucial information that often gets lost in doom-and-gloom reporting about price corrections.

Inverloch: The Premium Coastal Jewel

Current Median: $820,000 | Annual Sales: 129 properties

Inverloch remains the undisputed premium location in the Bass Coast, and the current median of $820,000 represents a 18% decline from the 2021-22 peak of $1,005,000. Let me put that in perspective for you.



In October 2015-16, Inverloch's median was just $435,000. Even after the recent correction, properties have nearly doubled in value over nine years. That's an average annual growth rate of approximately 7.5% – exceptional by any measure, and well above inflation.

Inverloch Historical Price Trends

What fascinates me most about Inverloch's data is the resilience of transaction volumes. We sold 129 properties in the past year, compared to 123 the previous year and 129 the year before that. This consistency tells me that Inverloch maintains strong, sustainable demand even as prices have adjusted.

The Inverloch Advantage: Our town offers something unique in the Victorian coastal property landscape. We have the Bunurong Marine Park at our doorstep, Anderson Inlet for boating and fishing, a vibrant main street with quality cafés and restaurants, and a strong sense of community. Unlike many coastal towns that become ghost towns outside summer, Inverloch maintains year-round vitality.

The price range segmentation data shows significant activity from $500,000 through to well over $1.5 million, indicating we're attracting both retirees downsizing from Melbourne and families seeking the ultimate sea change. Properties in prime positions – particularly those with ocean views, walking distance to the beach, or on large blocks – continue to command premium prices and sell quickly when priced correctly.

What I'm Telling Inverloch Vendors: If you purchased during the 2020-21 COVID surge at around $820,000, you're currently looking at a stable market. If you bought earlier, you're still sitting on substantial equity gains. The key is realistic pricing – well-presented homes priced to meet the current market are selling within 60-90 days, whilst overpriced properties languish.

Cape Paterson: The Emerging Lifestyle Destination

Current Median: $692,500 | Annual Sales: 34 properties

Cape Paterson has transformed from a quiet, somewhat overlooked township into a highly desirable lifestyle destination, and the data reflects this evolution dramatically.



The current median of $692,500 has declined 26% from the 2021-22 peak of $939,000 – the largest percentage drop in our region. However, before you view this negatively, consider that in 2017-18, Cape Paterson's median was just $425,000. We've seen a 63% increase over seven years, even accounting for the recent correction.

Cape Paterson 5-Year Performance

Understanding Cape Paterson's Volatility

The relatively small number of annual sales (34 in the past year) means individual high-value or low-value transactions can significantly impact the median. This creates more volatility in the data compared to Inverloch's larger sample size. What this actually tells us is that Cape Paterson remains a tightly-held market where vendors aren't forced to sell, and buyers who understand the area's unique appeal are prepared to pay for quality.

Cape Paterson's attraction lies in its unspoilt character. The township retains a village feel, with the stunning Cape Paterson beach, cliff-top walks, and the Kilcunda to Cape Paterson rail trail offering active lifestyle options. The community here is tight-knit, with young families and retirees particularly drawn to the area's relaxed atmosphere.

The Infrastructure Story: Cape Paterson has benefitted from significant infrastructure investment, including improved roads, enhanced telecommunications, and upgraded community facilities. These improvements have elevated the township's appeal to buyers who previously might have overlooked it in favour of more established coastal towns.

I'm seeing strong interest from buyers aged 35-50 seeking an affordable coastal lifestyle within commuting distance of Melbourne (approximately 140km). With improved remote work options becoming permanent fixtures in many industries, Cape Paterson offers a compelling proposition – genuine coastal living at a price point that's $130,000 below Inverloch.



Award-Winning Service: My approach to selling in Cape Paterson focuses on highlighting the township's unique lifestyle advantages whilst providing vendors with realistic market expectations. This transparent approach has earned recognition through industry awards and, more importantly, exceptional client satisfaction ratings.

Venus Bay: Value and Opportunity in the Southern Coastal Strip

Current Median: $490,000 | Annual Sales: 61 properties

Venus Bay represents perhaps the most intriguing value proposition in our entire region. At a current median of $490,000, it's nearly $330,000 cheaper than Inverloch, yet offers similarly stunning coastal amenity, including pristine beaches, excellent fishing, and the Cape Liptrap Coastal Park.



The suburb has experienced a 27% decline from the 2021-22 peak of $675,000, but zoom out slightly and you'll see properties have increased 49% since 2018-19, when the median was $330,000. For buyers seeking coastal living on a budget, Venus Bay delivers exceptional value.

Venus Bay Price Trajectory

Venus Bay's Unique Position: This township operates primarily as a holiday destination, with a significant proportion of properties serving as weekenders or holiday homes. This creates a different market dynamic compared to Inverloch's more established residential character. The 61 sales recorded in the past year demonstrate healthy turnover, suggesting both investors and owner-occupiers are active in the market.

What I find particularly interesting in the Venus Bay data is the consistency of sales volumes across the past three years (61, 57, and 34 sales respectively for 2024-25, 2023-24, and 2022-23). The increase from 34 to 61 sales suggests buyers are recognising value opportunities as prices have corrected.

The Buyer Profile: Venus Bay attracts a diverse mix – retirees seeking affordable coastal retirement, young families purchasing weekenders, and investors looking for holiday rental opportunities. The town's relaxed atmosphere, excellent beaches, and abundance of wildlife (kangaroos are regular visitors!) create a quintessential Australian coastal experience.

The township lacks some of the commercial infrastructure of Inverloch or Wonthaggi, with limited retail and dining options, but this appeals to buyers seeking a quieter, more nature-focused coastal lifestyle. The general store serves essential needs, and Inverloch is only 20 minutes away for more extensive shopping and dining.



Investment Perspective: For investors, Venus Bay offers potential rental yields from both long-term tenants and short-term holiday rentals. Properties within walking distance of the beach command premium rental rates during peak summer periods, and there's growing demand for quality winter rentals as remote workers seek coastal lifestyle options year-round.

Wonthaggi: The Regional Hub with Remarkable Stability

Current Median: $575,000 | Annual Sales: 75 properties

As the commercial and administrative centre of Bass Coast Shire, Wonthaggi occupies a unique position in our regional market. The current median of $575,000 represents a 9% decline from the 2021-22 peak of $629,000 – the most modest correction in our entire region.

Wonthaggi's Stable Performance

This stability reflects Wonthaggi's fundamental strengths as a regional hub. The town offers comprehensive services including major supermarkets, medical facilities, schools from kindergarten through secondary, sporting facilities, and diverse employment opportunities. Unlike our purely coastal suburbs, Wonthaggi's economy isn't entirely dependent on tourism and holiday-home markets.

The Affordability Factor: At $245,000 below Inverloch's median, Wonthaggi offers families an affordable entry point to the Bass Coast region whilst maintaining proximity to beaches (Cape Paterson and Inverloch are both within 10-15 minutes' drive). This value proposition has sustained demand through the market correction.

The 75 sales recorded in the past year (down from 96 the previous year and 125 in 2021-22) reflect the broader market cooling, but transaction volumes remain healthy compared to historical norms. In 2018-19, Wonthaggi recorded 100 sales, suggesting current activity sits within normal ranges rather than representing market distress.

Who's Buying in Wonthaggi: The buyer profile is diverse – young families seeking affordable housing with good schools, retirees wanting services and amenities without premium coastal price tags, and investors purchasing rental properties for the town's steady tenant demand. The rental market in Wonthaggi remains tight, with vacancy rates typically below 2%, making it attractive for investors seeking reliable rental income.

Historical Context: Wonthaggi's property market has shown remarkable long-term growth. The current median of $575,000 compares to just $260,000 in 2015-16 – a 121% increase over nine years. Even accounting for the recent correction, Wonthaggi has delivered exceptional returns for long-term holders.



Future Outlook: Wonthaggi's position as the regional hub, combined with ongoing population growth in Bass Coast Shire (which has grown from approximately 32,000 in 2016 to over 38,000 in 2025), underpins sustainable long-term demand. The town is also benefitting from infrastructure investment, including upgrades to medical facilities and recreational amenities.

Tarwin Lower: The Boutique Rural-Coastal Blend

Current Median: $576,500 | Annual Sales: 4 properties

Tarwin Lower presents the most challenging data to analyse due to extremely limited transaction volumes – just 4 sales in the past year. However, this small sample size tells its own story: Tarwin Lower is a tightly-held, boutique market where properties rarely come available.

Tarwin Lower Historical Data (Note: Small Sample Size)

The current median of $576,500 represents a 24% decline from the 2021-22 peak of $755,000, but the volatility in Tarwin Lower's historical data reflects the impact of individual high-value sales on such a small sample size. In 2019-20, the median was $960,000 from just 4 sales, whilst in 2018-19, it was $440,000 from 9 sales.

The Tarwin Lower Appeal: This rural-coastal enclave offers large allotments, rural atmosphere, and proximity to both Venus Bay's beaches and the Tarwin River. Properties typically sit on substantial land, offering lifestyle opportunities including hobby farming, horse agistment, or simply space and privacy. The area attracts buyers seeking a tree-change/sea-change combination – coastal proximity without suburban density.

Market Dynamics: With only 4 sales annually, Tarwin Lower doesn't function as a conventional property market. Sales are often driven by life circumstances (retirement, relocation) rather than market conditions, and each property is essentially unique. Buyers in this market are typically seeking very specific lifestyle criteria and are prepared to wait for the right property.



Specialist Knowledge Required: Successfully buying or selling in Tarwin Lower requires an agent who understands the unique characteristics that drive value in rural-coastal properties – land quality, water access, bushfire ratings, planning overlays, and proximity to amenities. My comprehensive approach to property appraisal considers all these factors to achieve optimal outcomes for clients.

Seasonal Patterns: When Properties Sell Best

Peak Selling Months Analysis (5-Year Data)

The five-year peak selling period data reveals crucial insights for both vendors and buyers. January consistently emerges as the strongest month, with sales volumes nearly double the winter average. This pattern reflects the psychology of our coastal market – families holidaying in the region over Christmas-New Year fall in love with the lifestyle, and by January, they're ready to make offers.

Spring (September-November) shows solid activity, aligning with traditional real estate wisdom, but our coastal market's summer strength is more pronounced than metropolitan areas. Interestingly, October 2025 data shows renewed strength, suggesting buyers are re-entering the market after the correction period.

Vendor Strategy: If you're planning to sell, listing in November-December (ahead of the January surge) or September-October positions you to capture motivated buyers. However, winter sales can still succeed with correct pricing – serious buyers operate year-round, and reduced competition can work in your favour.



Strategic Marketing: My award-winning marketing campaigns are designed to capture buyer attention during peak periods whilst maintaining consistent exposure year-round. Client reviews consistently praise the quality of property presentation, professional photography, and targeted digital marketing that achieves premium results.

Price Range Analysis: Where the Market Actually Transacts

Regional Price Segmentation (Oct 2024 - Sep 2025)

The price range segmentation for the 12 months ending September 2025 reveals that the bulk of activity occurs in the $500,000-$750,000 bracket, with notable volumes in the $250,000-$500,000 range.

This data tells vendors a crucial story: the market has depth at accessible price points but thins significantly above $1.2 million.



For premium properties, this means patience and realistic pricing are essential. The buyers exist, but they're discerning and won't overpay in the current market. For properties in the $500,000-$800,000 range, competition amongst buyers remains healthy when homes are well-presented and realistically priced.

The Data You Need to Know: Transaction Trends

Key Market Metrics at a Glance

Let me break down some key metrics that aren't immediately obvious from the headline figures:

Market Absorption Rate: With 303 sales across five suburbs over 12 months, we're averaging approximately 25 sales per month region-wide. This represents a healthy, functioning market with sufficient buyer activity to support vendor confidence.

Days on Market: Well-priced properties in premium positions are typically selling within 60-90 days, whilst overpriced or poorly presented homes can linger for 120+ days. The key differentiator isn't the suburb – it's the price-to-value equation.

Buyer Origin: Approximately 70% of buyers in our region come from metropolitan Melbourne, with the remaining 30% split between local buyers upgrading/downsizing, interstate purchasers (particularly from NSW and Queensland), and a small percentage of international buyers.



Finance Approval Rates: Pre-approval rates have improved significantly compared to 2023-24, when rising interest rates created uncertainty. Current buyers are generally well-qualified, with solid deposit positions and conservative borrowing ratios.

10-Year Growth Comparison: The Long View

This long-term perspective is crucial for understanding the true health of our market. Despite recent corrections, all five suburbs have delivered exceptional returns over the past decade, with Wonthaggi leading at 121% growth.

My Comprehensive Assessment: Where Are We Headed?

After analysing 15 years of data across five suburbs and 303 transactions in the past year alone, here's my honest assessment:

✅ The correction is complete or nearing completion: Transaction volumes have stabilised, and prices have found sustainable levels supported by genuine buyer demand rather than speculation or emergency low interest rates.

✅ Long-term fundamentals remain strong: Limited land supply, increasing Melbourne population, permanent remote work options, and undeniable lifestyle appeal create sustainable long-term demand for Bass Coast property.

✅ Differentiation is increasing: The market is becoming more sophisticated, with clear premium pricing for superior locations, presentations, and amenities. Generic properties face stronger competition, whilst exceptional homes continue to command strong prices.

✅ Opportunity exists for strategic buyers: The correction has created the best buying opportunities in 3-4 years for those with finance approved and realistic expectations.



✅ Quality presentation matters more than ever: In a market where buyers have choice and aren't feeling urgency, property presentation, professional marketing, and realistic pricing are the critical success factors.

Why Client Reviews Matter: The Importance of Trust in Property Transactions

Property transactions represent one of the largest financial decisions most people make in their lifetime. My commitment to transparent communication, detailed market analysis, and client advocacy has resulted in consistent five-star reviews and industry recognition.

These testimonials reflect my core philosophy: provide clients with accurate information, honest advice, and professional service that earns trust and delivers results.

For Homeowners Across Inverloch, Cape Paterson, Venus Bay, Wonthaggi, and Tarwin Lower

The message is clear: our region has transitioned from an extraordinary boom to a mature, sustainable market. Your property's value reflects genuine lifestyle appeal rather than speculative excess, and that's a far stronger foundation for future growth.

If you're considering selling

The current market rewards well-prepared vendors. Properties that are professionally presented, realistically priced, and strategically marketed are achieving successful sales. Overpriced properties languish regardless of quality.

If you're considering buying

Opportunities exist across all price points, but particularly in the $500,000-$800,000 range where market depth provides choice and negotiating power. Pre-approval and genuine buyer intent are essential.

If you're holding long-term

The data supports patient confidence. Even after the correction, substantial equity gains exist for anyone who purchased prior to 2020, and the region's fundamental appeal continues to attract new residents and investors.

Get Your Personalised Property Assessment

If you'd like a personalised assessment of your property's current value or guidance on buying in the current market, I'm available for a confidential discussion. My commitment is to provide honest, data-driven advice that serves your best interests – an approach that's earned industry awards and, more importantly, the trust of hundreds of satisfied clients.

Report compiled October 25, 2025 | Data source: Property Data Solutions Pty Ltd | © State of Victoria property sales data